Municipal elections during which the Israelis will vote for the cities mayors and local councils deputies will be held in Israel on October 30, 2018.
This time it was decided to announce the official Israeli day off unlike the previous elections held on a regular working day. It is assumed this will increase electorate activity since people will not have to seek the strength to reach the polling station after a 12-hour working day. Sharp Russian-speaking voters number increase is also expected in this regard.
Suffrage on the «Russian street»
«Russian street» became the campaigning candidates’ efforts goal to both the mayors and local councils two months before the elections since it could influence the elections results, especially in the cities with a high Russian-speaking population percentage.
Zeev Khanin, the Ministry of Aliyah and Integration’s chief scientist and professor published «Russian Cities of Israel» research results in 2017, in which he stated the last Aliyah wave from 2013 would be more correct to call «Haifa», which confirmed Haifa status as «Russian capital of Israel». Haifa has about a quarter of Russian-speaking Israelis out of almost 300 thousand city’s population and «Russian street» voice can significantly change the elections results, according to various estimates.
There are currently three candidates for the mayoral elections in Haifa.
- Yesh Atid parliamentary party, Shas ultra-Orthodox party and others support Yona Jaw, the current mayor for 15 years who should to leave this post according to various citizens and politicians’ opinion morally and materially
- Einat Kalisch while positioning herself as the opposition leader in the city council and a non-systemic candidate who is not associated with any financial-industrial group signed the support agreement with Avoda, the left political spectrum party.
- David Etzioni, Kulanu party’s Haifa department lawyer and ex head, who worked as a senior advisor to the Minister of Finance of Kahlon on municipal financing issues has refused from the party support.
There are various approaches regarding the candidates work styles with the «Russian street».
- Yulia Streim, connected with Yona Yav by certain relations, provided the work with repatriates in Haifa for many years while using budget money.
- David Etzioni opened the Russian-speaking headquarters, by the way, the only Hebrew-speaking candidate and included the Russian-speaking candidate in his city council deputies list.
- Einat Kalisch also makes claims on the «Russian street» while mentioning there is a «glass ceiling» for the Russian-speaking people and «Russians» discrimination at the local level.
The city opposition head who published an analytics showing the almost complete Russian-speakers absence in the «Russian capital of Israel» municipality. This analyst has provoked Yulia Streim, «Russians» curator’s strong reaction for the current mayor and live discussion in social networks between various candidates supporters.
The situation with candidates and political alignment may change on September 27, when the final candidates lists for the City Council mayor and deputies post will be finalized.
However, it’s impossible to ignore the forthcoming elections to the Knesset in 2019 while analyzing the «Russian street» use in the local elections in Haifa. The municipal elections in Israel are parliamentary elections preparations and the main electoral intrigue of 2019 is whether the left and Arab parties are able to overthrow Benjamin Netanyahu by taking away the votes and seats in the Knesset from his Likud party.
“Judgment Day of Israeli Sociology”
Left-wing bloc, which was renamed by «Zionist Camp» (Avoda + A-Tnua) before the elections, was already celebrating victory over the right-wing Likud during the elections to the Knesset in 2015.
«Yediot Ahronot» newspaper published the poll results on March 13, a few days before voting, according to which «Zionist Camp» left-wing bloc would get 26 deputy mandates and the right Likud party – just 22.
The elections day has come and none forecast was true. Likud received 28 mandates – 6 more than the block created by Avoda party.
And now, the left want to take revenge in the elections of 2019 while using any opportunities to «kill Netanyahu rating». Likud experiences loses in Knesset and «Zionist Camp» strengthens own position according to «Midgam» survey on April 2018.
“Russian trace”
There is one more tool to fight with the right in addition to the fight against corruption – «Russian trace ghost» in Israeli elections, especially given the active Israel cooperation, represented by Benjamin Netanyahu and Russia, represented by Vladimir Putin. The «arguments» preparation for the right prosecution is already in full swing in the electronic media with a left direction.
For example, an article with the significant «The way Russia influences the political Israelis views» title appeared a few days ago on «Details» portal, which positions itself as a mouthpiece of left-wing ideas in the Russian sector. Its author, Vladimir Idzinsky, who defends the left political spectrum values, is also an active «Relevant» portal author.
The author’s logic in Kremlin influence description on the «Russian street» is rather indicative. In his opinion, Israel importance in the Russian strategic plans determines the Russian special services’ attention to the «Russian street».
The author claims the overwhelming Russian-speaking Israelis majority vote for the right-wing parties and this is strange for secular people. Further there is expressed the suspicion about Kremlin influence on the political agenda through the Israeli Russian-language media.
Then suddenly the attention is transferred to Yevgeny Satanovsky, the economic sciences candidate and the Middle East Institute president, who never hid the fact of being Russian propagandist. Vladimir Idzinsky starts to describe his influence on the «Russian street» in Israel in detail, citing Satanovsky’s quotations specially selected for the ideological task: «Netanyahu understands this is the end. The peace process has exhausted itself. All experiments have been carried out and terminated by failure».
Simple manipulation introduces Israeli right dependence idea on Kremlin will and Netanyahu is becoming a pro-Russian special services victim who «try to support forces opposing a peaceful solution to the conflict», «… Russian propagandists promote extreme right-wing and anti-Palestinian views …», namely – the Benjamin Netanyahu’s and his party’s views.
Note «Israel is our home» and Avigdor Lieberman has been never mentioned in the current article. Perhaps because Likud, in the case of unification with «Israel is our home» in the election bloc, is gaining less than separately according to the latest polls.
It is obvious that «Likud Betainu» party lists unification, which worked in the 19th Knesset elections in 2013, is no longer relevant in 2019. Lieberman support the left when he takes the votes «Russian street» votes from Likud in the global left confrontation against Netanyahu.
But let’s back to the Haifa election. Some sources claim that up to 70% of indigenous Israelis know exactly who they will vote for. It is 30-40% of the «already determined» among the Russian-speaking, who, basically, participate in the elections.
It should also be noted the majority of the «determined» Russian-speaking people vote for the right-wing and ultra-right parties. The remaining «oscillating mass» (60-70%) is the goal of such agitating left-wing parties as Avoda or the candidates supported by it.
How can the official statement of discrimination of the Russian opposition leaders in the city council, Einat Kalisch, help Avoda and left in the upcoming elections to the Knesset and in overthrowing «regime» by Netanyanu?
There are several areas of swinging the situation, before the elections from the Knesset and the consolidation of the protest electorate against the current Prime Minister, which require the active use of the «Russian street»:
- social requirements for the government, which pursues a liberal policy, by Russian-speaking pensioners, professional groups, such as security guards and careers, who are currently actively working with left-wing trade unions while trying to protect their social and labor rights;
- strengthening the Russian-speaking confrontation with Arab and religious and ultra-religious sector, while the Israel is our home also plays an active role in exacerbating the situation;
- protest sentiments consolidation in Russian-speaking groups on social networks through their devirtualization and joint platform development for protest actions;
- a throw in the right-wing Russian-speaking electorate of the radical demands of the Arab-Israeli conflict to discredit the government’s security policy.
“Assemblage point”
It should also be noted the current Aliyah from Ukraine has considerable practical experience in the protest campaigns implementation in order to overthrow the government and organize small aggressive groups to sway the situation in certain direction.
In my opinion, Einat Kalisch team research about discrediting the Russians in the local authorities, widespread in the Russian-language media, can become a «gathering point» for the above mentioned activities implementation of the left parties and organizations. This looks like, practically, the official city opposition leader’s statement which you can start working with the Russian-speaking people with in the right direction.
A few days ago, Donald Trump, in an exclusive interview with Hill.TV, announced that he had ordered the secret FBI documents publication concerning «Russian interference» in the US elections, on which basis Democrats had started proceedings and investigations against him. We remember «Pussy Power» and other actions and provocations organized by Democrats, trying to overthrow Donald Trump and weaken the Republicans in Congress.
It is obvious the left, led by Avoda, are going to use the «Russian trace» against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. «Haifa bridgehead» capture by Avoda will help to share these achievements with all Israel rather quickly.
Whether «Pussy Power» in Haifa elections will be successful and whether it will create a basis for swaying the situation before showing the elections to the Knesset in future.